It’s a few weeks after the 2026 NBA draft and most the of the dust has settled. First I want to do a self assessment on my own mock draft. The mock was an estimated guess, not the culmination of the scouting work but lets go. The three numbers first: 10 of 60 exact (player and slot), 15 of 60 within one, and the lead number, 52 of my 60 ranked players were drafted, with every single name in the top 35 selected. The logic calls I got right Lendeborg 11 to Golden State, Nate Ament drafted and sent to Milwaukee, and Ament 13 to Milwaukee, Graves was drafted 19 to Toronto as the quiet third. When my guesses are wrong, everything has a domino effect and that’s okay. Probably the most important marker was that 27 of my predicted 1st round picks were picked the the fist round.
The top five went chalk and most boards had the top four as chalk, I thought the same as the clippers that Wagler fit them best.
6. Brooklyn: Acuff / Mikel Brown (board 8). Miss.
7. Sacramento: Flemings / Acuff (board 6). Off by one.
8. Atlanta: Mikel Brown / Flemings (board 7). Off by one.
I had Acuff, Flemings, and Brown as the three guards going 6 through 8. All three went 6 through 8. I had the nameplates shuffled inside the window. Which team takes which guard inside a three pick run is noise. Identifying the right three players for the right window is the signal, and the board did. The teams had different preferences than I did.
9. Dallas: Burries / Morez Johnson (board 20). Miss.
Dallas hired Dusty May on Monday and he took his own Michigan big at 9. No public board had this. Coaching-hire reaches are unpredictable by nature, but the lesson is real: when a new coach arrives days before the draft, his former players’ ranges move. Morez Jphnson Jr. was climbing most “experts” boards but this shocked most still.
10. Milwaukee: Lopez / Burries (board 9). Off by one.
With the Bucks probably already expecting to get the Heat to draft Ament for them, they went with the best available guard.
11. Golden State: Lendeborg / Lendeborg. Exact. The Warriors made the choice I agree with and expected. They dont want a 19 year old who cant be an impactful player for a couple years in what are the last few years of Curry’s career and I highly doubt Curry wants to be on a rebuilding team like many think the Warriors should be. They’re resigning vets and going all in on now.
12. OKC: Steinbach/Mara.
I missed here but to my credit at least Mara would have been 1 of the 3 I thought they’d pick, with Jayden Quaintance being the 3rd. OKC is betting on Mara’s rapid rise at Michigan and that his mobility will be good enough.
13. Miami (Trading to Milwaukee):Ament/Ament. Exact.
I guessed this right as Milwaukuee is really the one making the decision and they like Aments potential.
14. Charlotte: Philon/Steinbach. I missed here but I dont hate their pick. I dont know if it was in the works (probably) but the Hornets resigned Coby White and made a big trade, sending Lamelo Ball to Minnesota for Naz Reid and picks. Coming off their best season in over a decade, this surprised everyone but maybe the Hornets are investing more in the long term and durability.
15. Chicago: Mara / Swain (board 21). Miss.
A reasoning error, not draft chaos. When Claxton arrived in the Randle trade, I read center as settled and still mocked a developmental big behind him. Chicago read it the opposite way and took a wing. Filling a position by trade does not make it the draft target, it usually makes it the last place the pick goes. Right trade, wrong conclusion.
16. 16. Memphis: Anderson / Stirtz (board 30, traded to OKC). Miss.
Stirtz going 16 when I had him 30 is the first appearance of the night’s clearest pattern: mature, high-floor role players went earlier than my board priced them. More on this below.
17. OKC: Quaintance / Okorie (board 17, traded to Detroit). Miss.
Okorie went at exactly his number on my rankings, 17, with Detroit trading up to get him. My mock had him at 24 because I matched him to New York’s backup point guard need, so the miss here is team-matching, not evaluation. The rankings and the league priced the player identically.
18. Charlotte: Cenac / Anderson (board 16). Miss.
I had Cenac here as the athletic lob threat next to Kalkbrenner, and instead he slid to 27, part of the same younger-swing slide as Lopez and Philon. Charlotte took Anderson, two slots below my board rank, so the board read the player fine and the mock missed the team. I had him to Memphis at 16 as the young lead guard next to Boozer. Charlotte took the same profile, and the next day they traded LaMelo Ball to Minnesota. Whether Anderson was drafted to play off LaMelo or because the front office already knew the backcourt was opening up, only they know. Either way, right evaluation, wrong jersey.
19. Toronto: Graves / Graves. Exact.
The quiet exact. Graves was an analytics-model sleeper most boards had lower. Length and switchability to the team that has built its whole identity on it.
20. San Antonio: Morez Johnson / Quaintance (board 20). Miss.
My mock had Quaintance going 17. My rankings had him 20. The draft said 20. The knee-medical reporting explains his slide from the consensus range, but whatever it did to other boards, he landed exactly on my number. The mock was more optimistic than my own rankings here, and the rankings were right.
21. Detroit: Swain / Lopez (board 10, traded to Memphis). Miss.
Lopez sliding from my 10 to pick 21 is the other side of the Stirtz coin. The young upside swing waited while the ready-now players went. Memphis trading up for him after moving back twice says they liked the value too, they just let the market come to them first.
22. Philadelphia: Veesaar / Philon (board 14). Miss.
Philon at 22 against my 14 is another young slider landing at a discount. My pick here was Veesaar, whose fall goes much further and I am honestly second guessing rating him so high. Philly went best player available here and probably got a steal in talent if not exact fit.
23. Atlanta: Meleek Thomas / Ejiofor (board 26). Miss.
Ejiofor three spots above my board is a rounding error on value. The miss is the profile: I had Atlanta taking a bench scoring guard, they took the unanimous Big East Player of the Year as frontcourt defense. Different need read, same tier of player.
24. New York: Okorie / Carr (board 24, traded to LA Lakers). Miss.
Carr went at exactly his number on my rankings, 24, with the Lakers trading up for him. The tools profile, best guard wingspan in the class and elite lane agility, is what teams pay for in the 20s, and the market and my rankings priced him identically. My call here was Okorie, who was gone at 17 before New York ever picked.
25. LA Lakers: Peat / De Larrea (board 42, to Dallas via New York). Miss.
My biggest value miss of the round, seventeen slots. I framed De Larrea as a draft-and-stash and let that framing set the rank. His timeline was genuinely uncertain, but uncertainty should have widened his range, not anchored him at 42. The Knicks selected him at 25 and Dallas traded up from 30, adding two second-round picks, to acquire his rights, so the market priced him a full round above my number. The lesson is about the framing, not the player: when the role label is doing the ranking work, check the label. One wrinkle worth logging: some reporting since the draft says Dallas may keep him in Valencia as a stash anyway, so the timeline read had merit. The price read did not.
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